Golden Globes Final Predictions: ‘Sinners,’ ‘One Battle After Another’ and Brazil Aim to Make History

As comedian Nikki Glaser prepares to take the stage for the 83rd Golden Globes, the usual late-breaking anxiety has set in. With voting having closed on January 3, the industry’s final temperature check is underway. The winners forecast reflects a Globes lineup that balances prestige and populism with just enough unpredictability to keep pundits hedging their bets.

### Film Categories

#### Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Chloé Zhao’s *Hamnet* looks difficult to beat. While there’s a theoretical late-surge scenario in which Ryan Coogler’s *Sinners* could muscle past it, the vampire drama is positioned to dominate the cinematic and box office achievement category (and original score for Ludwig Göransson). The Globes may opt to spread the wealth, which also applies to the actress (drama) category. Jessie Buckley of *Hamnet* appears ready to convert critical admiration into a televised victory, potentially kicking off her march toward Oscar night—assuming she can hold off Renate Reinsve of *Sentimental Value*.

#### Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
The race is comparatively straightforward. Warner Bros.’ *One Battle After Another* is widely expected to take home the top prize, with Paul Thomas Anderson poised to add a director win to the film’s tally. Historically, the Globes have favored auteur studio plays in this category, and *One Battle After Another* fits that mold neatly. Should it prevail at both the Globes and the Oscars, it would join an exclusive club of comedy or musical champions such as *Green Book*, *The Artist*, and *Shakespeare in Love* that went on to claim the Best Picture Oscar.

#### Acting Races
The acting categories offer a mix of expected outcomes and potential surprises. In comedy or musical, Ethan Hawke’s portrayal of Lorenz Hart in Richard Linklater’s *Blue Moon* has been somewhat underestimated. The film’s surprise Best Picture nomination suggests deeper support than assumed. Hawke could leapfrog over Timothée Chalamet of *Marty Supreme* and Leonardo DiCaprio of *One Battle After Another*.

For Best Actress (Comedy or Musical), Rose Byrne is the safest bet for *If I Had Legs I’d Kick You*, likely edging out Cynthia Erivo’s performance in *Wicked: For Good* and Chase Infiniti’s breakout role in *One Battle After Another*. Meanwhile, Erivo’s co-star Ariana Grande has a real possibility of collecting her first major awards-season prize with a Supporting Actress win for *Wicked: For Good*, unless Teyana Taylor (*One Battle After Another*) or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (*Sentimental Value*) cause an upset.

Stellan Skarsgård is likely to triumph in the Best Supporting Actor field for *Sentimental Value*.

#### Lead Actor (Drama)
The Best Actor (Drama) race promises to make history. Wagner Moura is favored to win for *The Secret Agent*, slightly pushing past Michael B. Jordan from *Sinners*. Moura, the first Brazilian man nominated in this category, seems to be on a path similar to Fernanda Torres, who earned a Globe for *I’m Still Here* last year.

#### Other Film Categories
*It Was Just an Accident* is favored in Best Non-English Language Film, though conversations with voters hint another win may come through for *The Secret Agent*. Netflix’s *KPop Demon Hunters* is projected to win Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song for the chart-topping “Golden.”

#### Screenplay Category
There is potential for history in the screenplay category, depending on the voters’ direction. Paul Thomas Anderson could complete a rare hat trick by adding a screenplay win to his projected directing and Best Picture triumphs for *One Battle After Another*. Only one writer-director-producer—Oliver Stone for *Born on the Fourth of July* (1989)—has ever pulled off that feat at the Golden Globes, though notably, that film lost Best Picture.

Alternatively, two non-English language films—*It Was Just an Accident* and *Sentimental Value*—could emerge victorious. However, there appears to be enough support to push Ryan Coogler over the finish line for *Sinners*, which would make him the first Black winner of the screenplay category at the Globes. He would join an exclusive group of five Black nominees, following Charles Fuller (*A Soldier’s Story*, 1984), Spike Lee (*Do the Right Thing*, 1989), John Ridley (*12 Years a Slave*, 2013), and Barry Jenkins (*Moonlight*, 2016; *If Beale Street Could Talk*, 2018).

If Chloé Zhao wins alongside her co-writer Maggie O’Farrell for *Hamnet*, she would become the first East Asian winner in the category.

Ultimately, the question remains whether the Globes will validate the consensus or remind everyone that surprises remain part of their enduring brand.

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### Final Golden Globes Winner Predictions

#### Film

– **Best Motion Picture (Drama)**
– Will Win: *Hamnet* (Focus Features)
– Could Win: *Sinners*, *Sentimental Value*

– **Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)**
– Will Win: *One Battle After Another* (Warner Bros.)
– Could Win: *Marty Supreme*, *Bugonia*

– **Best Actor (Drama)**
– Will Win: Wagner Moura, *The Secret Agent* (Neon)
– Could Win: Michael B. Jordan (*Sinners*), Oscar Isaac (*Frankenstein*)

– **Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)**
– Will Win: Timothée Chalamet, *Marty Supreme* (A24)
– Could Win: Ethan Hawke (*Blue Moon*), Leonardo DiCaprio (*One Battle After Another*)

– **Best Actress (Drama)**
– Will Win: Jessie Buckley, *Hamnet* (Focus Features)
– Could Win: Renate Reinsve (*Sentimental Value*), Jennifer Lawrence (*Die My Love*)

– **Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)**
– Will Win: Rose Byrne, *If I Had Legs I’d Kick You* (A24)
– Could Win: Cynthia Erivo (*Wicked: For Good*), Chase Infiniti (*One Battle After Another*)

– **Best Supporting Actor**
– Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård, *Sentimental Value* (Neon)
– Could Win: Benicio Del Toro (*One Battle After Another*), Jacob Elordi (*Frankenstein*)

– **Best Supporting Actress**
– Will Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, *Sentimental Value* (Neon)
– Could Win: Amy Madigan (*Weapons*), Emily Blunt (*The Smashing Machine*)

– **Best Director**
– Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, *One Battle After Another* (Warner Bros.)
– Could Win: Jafar Panahi, Ryan Coogler

– **Best Screenplay**
– Will Win: *Sinners* (Warner Bros.), Ryan Coogler
– Could Win: *It Was Just an Accident*, *Sentimental Value*

– **Best Original Score**
– Will Win: Ludwig Göransson, *Sinners* (Warner Bros.)
– Could Win: *One Battle After Another*, *Sirāt*

– **Best Original Song**
– Will Win: “Golden” from *KPop Demon Hunters* (Netflix) – Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Ido, 24, and Teddy
– Could Win: “I Lied to You” from *Sinners*, “The Girl in the Bubble” from *Wicked: For Good*

– **Best Animated Feature**
– Will Win: *KPop Demon Hunters* (Netflix)
– Could Win: *Zootopia 2*, *Little Amélie or the Character of Rain*

– **Best Non-English Language Film**
– Will Win: *The Secret Agent* (Neon, Brazil)
– Could Win: *It Was Just an Accident*, *Sentimental Value*

– **Cinematic and Box Office Achievement**
– Will Win: *Sinners* (Warner Bros.)
– Could Win: *KPop Demon Hunters*, *F1*

—

### Television Categories

– **Best TV Series (Drama)**
– Will Win: *The Pitt* (HBO Max)
– Could Win: *Severance*, *Pluribus*

– **Best TV Series (Musical or Comedy)**
– Will Win: *The Studio* (Apple TV)
– Could Win: *Hacks*, *Nobody Wants This*

– **Best Limited Series**
– Will Win: *Adolescence* (Netflix)
– Could Win: *Black Mirror*, *All Her Fault*

– **Best Actor in a TV Series (Drama)**
– Will Win: Noah Wyle, *The Pitt* (HBO Max)
– Could Win: Adam Scott, Diego Luna

– **Best Actor in a TV Series (Musical or Comedy)**
– Will Win: Seth Rogen, *The Studio* (Apple TV)
– Could Win: Glen Powell, Adam Brody

– **Best Actor in a TV Series (Limited)**
– Will Win: Stephen Graham, *Adolescence* (Netflix)
– Could Win: Charlie Hunnam, Matthew Rhys

– **Best Actress in a TV Series (Drama)**
– Will Win: Rhea Seehorn, *Pluribus* (Apple TV)
– Could Win: Kathy Bates, Britt Lower

– **Best Actress in a TV Series (Musical or Comedy)**
– Will Win: Jean Smart, *Hacks* (HBO Max)
– Could Win: Kristen Bell, Jenna Ortega

– **Best Actress in a TV Series (Limited)**
– Will Win: Sarah Snook, *All Her Fault* (Peacock)
– Could Win: Michelle Williams, Claire Danes

– **Best Supporting Actor on Television**
– Will Win: Owen Cooper, *Adolescence* (Netflix)
– Could Win: Tramell Tillman, Walton Goggins

– **Best Supporting Actress on Television**
– Will Win: Erin Doherty, *Adolescence* (Netflix)
– Could Win: Hannah Einbinder, Carrie Coon

– **Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television**
– Will Win: Ricky Gervais, *Ricky Gervais: Mortality* (Netflix)
– Could Win: Brett Goldstein, Sarah Silverman

– **Best Podcast**
– Will Win: *Good Hang with Amy Poehler* (Spotify)
– Could Win: *Call Her Daddy*, *SmartLess*

—

### Additional Notes

Variety’s parent company, Penske Media Corporation, owns Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions in a joint venture with Eldridge.

—

The 83rd Golden Globes promise a mix of familiar favorites and exciting newcomers, with several categories ripe for potential surprises. As the ceremony approaches, all eyes will be on the winners to see if the Globes validate industry consensus or deliver unexpected outcomes that keep the awards season conversation buzzing.
https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/golden-globes-predictions-winners-2026-history-upsets-1236625141/

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