CEO Managing $15 Billion Says “Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Is Over,” Shares What to Expect Next
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley recently shared his insights on social media, stating that the long-discussed “four-year cycle” model for Bitcoin (BTC) is no longer valid. According to Horsley, current market behavior has disrupted this historical pattern, ushering in a new era for Bitcoin investing.
Horsley explained that most investors currently believe 2026 will be a bearish year for Bitcoin, based on the traditional four-year cycle model. However, this expectation has created a self-fulfilling effect, which he described in three stages:
1. **First Effect:** Investors seek to avoid risk by selling off their Bitcoin holdings in 2025, anticipating a decline in 2026.
2. **Second Impact:** This early sell-off causes 2025 itself to become a bearish year, thereby disrupting the four-year cycle.
3. **Third Impact:** With the cycle broken, 2026 becomes an undefined year — effectively “open season” without predictable market trends.
Horsley has previously referred to the four-year cycle model as “a product of the old crypto era.” He highlights that the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, the influx of new institutional participants, and shifts in the overall market structure have created a fundamentally different dynamic in today’s Bitcoin landscape.
According to the CEO, Bitcoin has been in a bear market for approximately six months, a phase that he believes is now nearing its end. “The common view is that four-year cycles continue. However, the reality is that this belief inherently disrupts the cycle by shaping investor behavior,” Horsley noted.
Interestingly, despite the bear market, Bitcoin’s price as of 2025 remains about 2.5% higher than at the beginning of the year, underscoring the market’s evolving nature.
*This is not investment advice.*
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/ceo-managing-15-billion-says-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-is-over-shares-what-to-expect-next/
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