Trump’s trade war: has China won?

Donald Trump was in a “buoyant mood” as he flew back from his tour of Asia last week, reported Rob Crilly in The Telegraph. Air Force One was packed with gleaming gifts: a crown, a golf putter, and even a Nobel Peace Prize nomination. On board, the US president boasted about the billion-dollar investment deals he’d struck with Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia during a visit that included memorable moments — from breaking into a dance alongside rainbow-clad performers in Kuala Lumpur to grooving to “Y.M.C.A.” on a US aircraft carrier in Japan.

But Trump’s biggest prize, noted Mary Dejevsky in The Independent, was what he called an “amazing” meeting — a “12 out of 10” — with China’s President Xi Jinping. This took place on the sidelines of a summit in South Korea, where the two leaders declared a truce. There won’t be an all-out trade war between the world’s two biggest economies, “at least not yet.” For that alone, we can all “breathe a small sigh of relief.”

Trump was beaming when he announced the agreement, wrote Ian Williams in The Spectator. However, “on closer inspection, it is all rather underwhelming.” US tariffs on China, which at their peak had been as high as 154%, will be cut to an average rate of 45%. In return, China will resume buying soybeans from American farmers and pause its latest curbs on the export of rare-earth minerals for one year.

In other words, The Times observed, despite Trump’s tariff theatrics and bluster, US-China trade relations have essentially returned to where they stood when he reentered the White House.

The real-estate mogul likes to “crow” about his deal-making skills, said Nicholas Kristof. In reality, he has “bungled” what is arguably the most important bilateral trading relationship in the world today. Trump “badly miscalculated” when he rashly announced “liberation day” tariffs on China in April. His aim was to punish Beijing and reduce the US trade deficit, but he overlooked the fact that the Asian superpower now holds the upper hand in such negotiations.

China can buy US goods, including soybeans, from elsewhere. More crucially, it is the “OPEC of rare-earth minerals,” controlling around 90% of the world’s supply of these elements — which are essential for everything from cars and phones to military equipment. Xi was always going to weaponize this “near-monopoly” to force a reluctant US back to the negotiating table.

Now, the Chinese leader “sees” the US’s weakness and is likely to use it to induce “compliant behaviour” on major issues such as Taiwan. The US hasn’t just lost a trade war; it has also forfeited “a chunk of [its] global credibility and influence for years to come.”
https://theweek.com/politics/trumps-trade-war-has-china-won

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